- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmy.ml
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/44511303
Leaving the regime undefeated could motivate Tehran to develop nuclear weapons and leave it in control of much of the world’s energy flows March 11, 2026
Yet 12 days into the war, Iran keeps firing missiles and drones across the Middle East, albeit at a slower rate. Iran’s ability to destroy with precision strikes some of the most sensitive and scarce U.S. military targets in the Middle East, such as radars for air-defense installations, didn’t go unnoticed. Should America abandon its Gulf partners after exposing them to existential danger, there will be inevitable repercussions in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
“This war hugely damages U.S. standing in the world, which means that China has much more scope to establish its own standing in the Middle East and the Global South generally,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.
“Meanwhile, everyone is observing that Iran has, at best, a middling military capability—and the Americans can’t take them out,” he said.
The commentary I’ve heard suggests that the Trump admin knew they were a tough adversary, but still thought it would be another one and done type victory. As in, throw all your missiles at them and there will be a regime change and someone will give Trump a peace prize.
The thing is, outside of Trump’s inner circle no one thought that would happen and, predictably… it’s destabilised the middle east and initiated an energy crisis.
Now it really seems like Iran holds all the cards. They basically just need to wait. The ruling class can just go into hiding, and every few weeks just launch a $20k drone at an oil tanker, or airport, or military base. These attacks don’t even need to be successful. It will cost many millions to defend against them, all the while an unpopular war becomes ever more so.
Obviously, Iran can wait a lot longer than Trump can. I suspect Trump will be long dead before the strait of Hormuz is open to regular shipping again.
And meanwhile you have the talk about letting Yuan dominated oil through the strait and shooting anything else. Iran could just breaks the petrodollar. Thus by attacking Iran, USA might have caused what it sought to prevent and increases China’s global status. Unless USA goes for the long ground war, what’ll do the debt levels and trust in the dollar no good either. And because Trump burned most USA’s allies, there won’t be much help. USA got itself in a tough spot.